What to expect
Independiente come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Independiente to win. Independiente the stronger side (xG 1.9-0.5), 70% to win.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Independiente have won two of their last five.
✓Estudiantes Rio Cuarto have won one of their last five.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Estudiantes Rio Cuarto a draw or better. At around 70% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
