How it turned out
The game finished with 1 goal. We made Under 2.5 goals 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Instituto come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 60%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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