What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Racing Club and 0.7 from Atl. Tucuman, so Racing Club come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 1.3-0.7), keeping it under more often than not (about 63%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 63% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
