What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Tigre and 0.8 from Sarmiento Junin, so Tigre come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Sarmiento Junin come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.0 goals between the two (xG 1.2-0.8). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sarmiento Junin have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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