What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Union de Santa Fe and 1.0 from Sarmiento Junin, so Union de Santa Fe come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sarmiento Junin come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.7 goals in total (xG 1.6-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 56%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 56%.
