What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Al-Ahli and 1.8 from Qatar SC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Qatar SC to win. Qatar SC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.8), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.80, which works out at about 36 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Al-Ahli to spoil this. We only make this about 38%, so it's far from a lock.