Al-Sailiya v Al-Arabi: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Al-Arabi to win 47%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Al-Sailiya host Al-Arabi at home in the Qatar Stars League on 3 September. The hosts sit bottom of the table, 12th of 12, with no points from two games and a –3 goal difference. One place above them, Qatar SC sit just one point clear of the relegation zone. Al-Arabi sit mid-table in seventh, also on two points from two games but with a neutral goal difference. One spot above them is Al-Gharafa, also a point ahead, while Al-Wakrah sit just below, a point behind. Both sides have a lot to play for – Al-Sailiya need any points to climb out of the drop zone, and Al-Arabi will be looking to move up the table.

Al-Sailiya have not managed a point in their opening two fixtures. They have lost both games and sit with a –3 goal difference. The two defeats give them zero points and a clear need to turn things around quickly if they hope to avoid relegation.

Al-Arabi come into this match after four games without a win. Their recent run reads: a 2-1 loss away to Al-Jahra, a 1-1 draw away at Al-Duhail SC, a 3-3 draw away to Kuwait SC and a 2-2 draw at home to Al-Shamal. In those four matches they have scored seven goals and let in eight. The last three road outings produced two draws and a loss, showing they can find the net but also concede. Their most recent game, the 2-1 defeat at Al-Jahra, was a close affair where they fell just short despite pressing forward.

When the two clubs have met before there is no record in the data we have, so we cannot point to any head-to-head pattern. Given the goal expectations of 1.3 for Al-Sailiya and 1.7 for Al-Arabi, the numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends. Both sides have been involved in high-scoring draws recently, so a match with several goals is likely.

We pick Al-Arabi to win. The price of 1.50 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, but Al-Arabi are the stronger side on the numbers and have shown they can score away from home. Our chance of this result is about 47 %. For the pick to go wrong Al-Sailiya would need to find a sudden surge of form and keep a clean sheet, or Al-Arabi would have to slip again after their recent loss. Otherwise the odds favour an Al-Arabi victory.