What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Al-Sailiya and 1.7 from Al-Arabi, so Al-Arabi come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Al-Sailiya come into this on two straight defeats. Al-Arabi come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al-Arabi to win. Al-Arabi shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.7), and we make them about 48% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Al-Sailiya to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 48%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
