How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Al-Rayyan to win 37%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Al-Rayyan and 1.6 from Al-Duhail SC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al-Rayyan to win. Al-Rayyan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.6), and we make them about 38% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.45, which works out at about 41 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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