How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Dynamo Makhachkala to score 1 or fewer 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Akhmat Grozny and 0.8 from Dynamo Makhachkala, so Akhmat Grozny come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Dynamo Makhachkala come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dynamo Makhachkala to score 1 or fewer. This is about Dynamo Makhachkala's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 79%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Dynamo Makhachkala have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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