What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Akhmat Grozny and 0.8 from Dynamo Makhachkala, so Akhmat Grozny come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 63%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. At around 63% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
