How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.2 goals from Krasnodar and 0.8 from Akron Togliatti, so Krasnodar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Krasnodar come into this on three straight wins. Akron Togliatti come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Krasnodar to win. Krasnodar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.2-0.8), and we make them about 85% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Krasnodar have won four of the last four meetings.
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