How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Krylya Sovetov to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Lokomotiv Moscow host Krylya Sovetov at home in a Russian Premier League clash on 16 September 2026. Lokomotiv sit 13th of 16 with six points from eight games and a –3 goal difference, just inside the relegation zone. One place above them is FC Rostov, two points clear, while Akron Togliatti sit one spot below, a point behind. Krylya Sovetov are a little higher, 10th with ten points and a –1 goal difference. They are two places and two points ahead of FC Orenburg, but level with FK Akhmat above them. Both teams are fighting to move away from the bottom half, so a win could mean a small step up the table for either side.
Lokomotiv’s recent form has been uneven. In their last eight games they have won two, drawn two and lost four. The most recent results are a 2-1 loss away to Zenit St Petersburg, a 1-0 away win over Baltika, a 2-1 defeat away to Dynamo Makhachkala, a 1-1 home draw with Akhmat Grozny, a 3-1 away loss to CSKA Moscow and a 1-0 home win over Baltika. At home in their last three matches they have one win and two draws, and they have not lost at home in that span. Over the eight games they have scored seven goals and let in eleven, keeping two clean sheets and failing to find the net once. Three of those games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them.
Krylya Sovetov have been more consistent. In their last eight outings they have won four, drawn three and lost only once. Their recent scores are a 2-1 home win over Rodina, a 2-2 home draw with Krasnodar, a 1-1 away draw with CSKA Moscow, a 0-0 away draw with Dynamo Moscow, a 4-1 home win over Akron Togliatti and a 1-0 away loss to Orenburg. They have not been beaten in their last five games. On the road in their last three they have not won, drawing twice and losing once. Across those eight matches they have scored thirteen and conceded seven, keeping two clean sheets and being shut out twice. Four of the games saw three or more goals and both sides scored in five. Their most recent outing was five days ago.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been open. In the last five meetings Lokomotiv have won once, Krylya Sovetov twice and two have ended in draws. Those encounters have produced an average of 3.8 goals per game. The most recent meeting was a 2-0 victory for Krylya Sovetov on 25 April 2026. Given the goal averages and the fact that both sides have been involved in high-scoring affairs, we can expect another match with several chances on both ends.
Our pick is for Krylya Sovetov to score one goal or fewer. We think they will struggle to find more than a single strike in this game, and the chance of that happening sits at about 75 %. The price of 1.38 matches our view of the match. For the bet to fail, Krylya Sovetov would need to score at least two goals, which would require a more dominant display than their recent away form suggests. We feel the price is fair and the risk is limited, making it a sensible choice.
Recent results
Krylya Sovetov have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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