How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Spartak Moscow to win 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Spartak Moscow host Fakel Voronezh at the Luzhniki on 16 September. Spartak sit fourth in the 16-team league with 16 points from eight matches and a +8 goal difference. One place above them sits CSKA Moscow, while Zenit St. Petersburg sit just below, one point behind. Fakel are bottom of the table, 16th with three points and a –6 goal difference, and they are already in the relegation zone. A win for Spartak would push them a point clear of Zenit and keep the pressure on CSKA, while Fakel would need a miracle to climb out of the drop zone. The two clubs are close in the head-to-head record – two wins each and one draw in the last five meetings – but the numbers this season show Spartak as the clear favourite.
Spartak’s recent form has been solid, especially at home. In their last eight games they have won five, drawn one and lost two, scoring 14 and conceding seven. The most recent fixtures were a 3-0 home win over FC Rostov, a 2-1 away loss to Dinamo, a 2-1 away victory at Akhmat Grozny, a 3-0 home win over Rodina Moscow, a 0-0 away draw with Dynamo Makhachkala and a 2-1 home win over Rubin Kazan. The last three matches at their own ground have all been victories, and they have kept three clean sheets in this run while only failing to score once. Seven of those eight games featured three or more goals, and both sides found the net in five of them. The team played just three days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround but with momentum on their side.
Fakel’s eight-game stretch tells a different story. They have not won any of those matches, drawing four and losing four, and have scored eight while conceding thirteen. Their most recent results are a 2-2 home draw with Baltika, a 3-1 away loss to Rostov, a 3-2 away defeat at Krasnodar, a 2-1 home loss to Dynamo Makhachkala, a 1-1 home draw with Krylya Sovetov and a 1-1 away draw with Pari NN. In their last three road games they have one draw and two defeats. They kept only one clean sheet in this period and failed to score in two matches. Like Spartak, they are also on a short turnaround, having played four days ago. The lack of wins and the negative goal difference underline how much they need points to avoid the relegation places.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been low-scoring. The last five meetings produced an average of 2.4 goals, with two wins each and one draw. The most recent encounter was a 0-0 stalemate on 4 May 2025. Given Spartak’s stronger attack – they average about 2.1 goals per game compared with Fakel’s 0.8 – we expect this match to follow a similar pattern: a few goals, likely both sides scoring, but Spartak should have the edge. The odds of Spartak scoring at all are high, and the chance they score twice or more is also strong, while Fakel are less likely to find the net more than once.
Our pick is Spartak Moscow to win. The price of 1.37 matches our view of the game and looks good. We think Spartak have about a 70 % chance of coming out on top, based on their recent home form, better goal record and the fact they are the stronger side on the numbers. For this to go wrong, Fakel would need to score early and hold on, or Spartak would have to struggle to break down a disciplined defence – both scenarios seem unlikely given the trends. All things considered, backing Spartak for the three points is the cleaner play.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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