How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
I think Lokomotiv Moscow are the stronger side in this game. They are expected to score more goals than Orenburg. The difference is not huge, but it is there. I think this game will be quite tight, with not many goals scored.
The last few meetings between these two teams had an average of 2.4 goals, which is not many. The most recent meeting was just a few months ago, and it ended 0-1 to Lokomotiv Moscow. This tells me that goals might be hard to come by in this match.
Our pick for this game is under 3.5 goals. I think the price looks good for this bet. We believe this is the most likely outcome, and the price is longer than we think it should be. This is why we are making this pick.
For this to go wrong, something unexpected would have to happen, like a very open and attacking game from both teams. But based on what we know, I think a cagey and low-scoring game is more likely. We are quite confident in our pick, with a 76 out of 100 chance of it landing.
Recent results
Lokomotiv Moscow have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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