How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Rodina Moscow (Draw No Bet) 64%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Rodina Moscow and 1.7 from Akron Togliatti, so Rodina Moscow come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Rodina Moscow come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Rodina Moscow (Draw No Bet). Rodina Moscow favoured (xG 1.7-1.2); a draw refunds your stake.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Akron Togliatti win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 64%: a lean, not a lock.
