How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Al-Faisaly or Draw 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Abha host Al-Faisaly at home in the Saudi Pro League on 27 October. Abha sit bottom of the table, 18th of 18, with just two points from nine games and a goal difference of minus 11. They are already in the relegation places and only two points clear of Al-Taawoun above them. Al-Faisaly sit three spots higher, 15th, with seven points from ten games and a minus 9 goal difference. A win for Al-Faisaly could lift them out of the drop zone, while a draw would keep them just above the bottom three. Both clubs are fighting to avoid the relegation battle.
Abha have not won any of their last four matches. Their most recent result was a 2-0 defeat away at Neom SC, before that a 2-1 loss away to Al Qadsiah. Prior to those they drew 0-0 away at Al Diriyah and lost 2-1 away to Al Nassr FC. In those four games they have scored only two goals while conceding six. They kept one clean sheet, failed to find the net in two matches and have been involved in three-goal affairs twice, with both sides scoring on each occasion. The short three-day break means they will be on a tight schedule.
Al-Faisaly’s form over their last six games shows a mixed picture. They lost 3-1 at home to Al Nassr FC, then drew 2-2 away at Al Shabab. After that they beat Al Kholood 3-2 at home and followed with a 2-0 home win over Al-Nahda. Their run ended with a 4-3 loss away to Al Rayyan and a 3-1 home defeat to Al Ittihad. Across these six fixtures they have scored twelve and let in fourteen. They kept a single clean sheet, and five of the games featured three or more goals with both sides scoring in each. They also have only four days to recover before travelling to Abha.
When the two clubs meet, the numbers suggest a game with a fair amount of scoring. Abha have a 72 % chance of finding the net at least once, while Al-Faisaly’s chance rises to 80 %. Both sides are likely to score twice or more in a good number of matches – 36 % for Abha and 47 % for Al-Faisaly. The expected total of 2.9 goals fits the recent pattern of high-scoring encounters for both teams. Given Abha’s poor defensive record and Al-Faisaly’s ability to score, we anticipate an open contest with both teams creating chances.
Our pick is Al-Faisaly or a draw at odds of 1.48. The price is longer than our own reading of the game, giving us a wider safety net while still backing the stronger side. We feel comfortable because Al-Faisaly have shown they can score and are only a point away from the safety of the mid-table. The bet would fail if Abha manage to hold a clean sheet and score the winner, or if the match ends with a narrow Al-Faisaly loss. Otherwise we expect at least a point for the visitors.
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