How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Al Khaleej or Draw 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Khaleej host Al Hazem at home in the Saudi Pro League on 29 October 2026. The hosts sit 10th of 18 with 12 points from 11 games and a –7 goal difference. One place above them sits Al Kholood, level on points, while Al Riyadh sit just below, also on 12 points. Al Hazem are three spots down in 13th place, on 10 points and a –4 goal difference, with Al Shabab a point ahead and Al-Faisaly level on points just below. Both sides are fighting to pull away from the lower mid-table and avoid slipping further down the table.
Al Khaleej’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches they have won two, drawn three and lost three. The most recent result was a 4-1 defeat away to Al Ahli. Before that they beat Al Fateh FC 3-2 away and Al-Fayha 2-0 at home. Earlier they drew 1-1 with Al-Ettifaq away, 1-1 with Al Nassr at home and held Al Riyadh to a 0-0 stalemate at home. In those eight games they have scored nine goals and let in 16, keeping two clean sheets and failing to find the net twice. Four of the games produced three or more goals and both sides have scored in five of them.
Al Hazem have also struggled to find consistency. Their last eight outings have yielded one win, four draws and three defeats. The latest was a 2-2 home draw with Al-Fayha. Prior to that they lost 1-0 away to Al Hilal, fell 3-2 at home to Al Fateh, drew 1-1 with Neom SC at home, suffered a 3-1 away loss to Al Ahli and earlier secured a 1-0 home win over Al Taawoun. They have now gone five games without a win and have not won in their last three trips away, recording one draw and two losses. Across the eight games they have scored eight and conceded 11, with two clean sheets and two goalless outings. Three of those matches featured three or more goals and both teams have scored in five.
The two clubs have met four times before. Al Khaleej have won twice, Al Hazem have not won, and the other two games ended in draws. Those meetings have averaged three goals per game, indicating a fairly open style when they clash. The most recent encounter was on 6 March 2026, when Al Khaleej edged Al Hazem 2-1. Given the similar goal-rich history and the fact that both sides have been scoring and conceding regularly, we can expect another match with chances on both ends and at least a couple of goals.
We back Al Khaleej or a draw at 1.33. The price matches our reading of the game and gives us a safety net if the hosts fail to win outright. Al Khaleej are the stronger side on the numbers, with an 80 % chance of scoring and a 46 % chance of scoring twice, while Al Hazem have a 70 % chance of finding the net and a 33 % chance of scoring more than once. The expected total of 2.7 goals fits the recent averages for both clubs. The pick will go wrong if Al Hazem manage to keep a clean sheet and snatch a win, or if the game turns into a low-scoring affair with neither side breaking the deadlock. Otherwise, the price looks good and the odds of success sit at about 73 % in our view.
Recent results
Al Khaleej have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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