How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals; the game finished with 8. Both teams scored. We made Al Nassr to win 84%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Nassr host Al Kholood at the King Fahd International Stadium on 29 October. Al Nassr sit comfortably in the top half of the table, while Al Kholood sit ninth of eighteen with just twelve points from ten games and a –7 goal difference. The gap to the team above them, Al Diriyah, is three points and they are level with the side below, Al Khaleej. Both clubs are fighting for a better position, but the stakes are far greater for Al Nassr, who are expected to keep the pressure on the leaders. The numbers show Al Nassr as the clear favourite, with a much higher chance of scoring and winning.
Al Nassr have been in fine form over their last eight matches, winning six, drawing one and losing one. Their most recent results are a 2-1 loss away to Al Ittihad, a 2-1 home win over Al Taawoun, a 3-2 away victory against Al Ettifaq, a 4-0 win away at Al Riyadh, a 3-0 home triumph over Al Fateh and a 4-1 home success versus Damac FC. In those eight games they have found the net 22 times while letting in only nine, keeping two clean sheets. Seven of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them, showing that Al Nassr can both create and concede chances.
Al Kholood have struggled in the same period, managing two wins, two draws and four defeats. Their latest five-day-old run includes a 3-0 home loss to Al-Ettifaq, a 3-2 away defeat to Al-Faisaly, a 5-0 home drubbing by Al Qadsiah, a 2-0 away loss to Al Riyadh, a 2-1 home win over Al Shabab and a 2-2 away draw with Al Fayha. Across those eight games they have scored ten goals and allowed eighteen, failing to find the net in three outings. On the road they have not won in four games, drawing twice and losing twice. The recent form points to a side that is finding it hard to score and is vulnerable at the back.
When the two clubs have met recently, Al Nassr have been dominant. In the last four meetings Al Nassr have won three times, drawn once and never lost. Those games have produced an average of 3.8 goals. The most recent encounter on 30 January saw Al Nassr beat Al Kholood 3-0. Given that history and the way both teams have been playing, we expect another open game with chances at both ends, but with Al Nassr likely to control the match and create more opportunities.
Our pick is Al Nassr to win. The numbers give Al Nassr about a 3.2 goal expectation compared with 0.8 for Al Kholood, and we see an 84 % chance of a victory. The price of 1.23 matches our view of the game. For this to go wrong Al Kholood would need to find a way to score early and hold on, which is unlikely given their recent inability to score and the strength of Al Nassr’s attack. In most other scenarios Al Nassr should come out on top.
Recent results
Al Nassr have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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