How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 6. We made Al Qadsiah to win 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Riyadh host Al Qadsiah at home in the Saudi Pro League on 29 October 2026. Al Riyadh sit 11th out of 18 with 12 points after ten games and a goal difference of minus eight. Al Qadsiah are much higher, third with 25 points from eleven games and a plus-fourteen goal difference. The gap between them is thirteen points, and a win for the visitors would keep them in the top three while a loss could see Al Riyadh inch closer to the safety zone. Both clubs are close to the teams around them – Al Khaleej sit just above Al Riyadh and Al Shabab just below – so the match could move the table a little, but the real story is the clash between a side fighting to climb out of the lower half and a side pushing for a European spot.
Al Riyadh have played eight games in their recent run, winning three, drawing three and losing two. Their latest results are a 2-1 home win over Al-Taawoun, a 1-0 away loss to Al Diriyah, a 1-1 draw with Al-Fayha away, a 2-0 home victory over Al Kholood, a 0-0 draw away at Al Khaleej and a heavy 5-0 defeat away to Al Ahli. In those eight matches they have scored nine goals and let in eleven. They kept three clean sheets but also failed to find the net in three games. At home they have been perfect in the last three fixtures, winning all three, which gives them a small boost heading into this tie.
Al Qadsiah’s eight-game spell shows four wins, three draws and just one loss. Their most recent results are a 1-1 home draw with Al-Sadd, a 3-2 home defeat to Al Hilal, a 1-0 away win at Al-Taawoun, a 2-1 home victory over Abha, a 1-1 away draw with Pakhtakor Tashkent and a 5-0 away win over Al Kholood. On the road they have been strong in the last three trips, winning two and drawing one. Across those eight games they have scored seventeen and conceded ten, keeping two clean sheets. The side played only three days ago, so they arrive on a short turnaround but with confidence from recent form.
The two clubs have met four times before. Al Qadsiah have won three of those encounters while Al Riyadh have won once, and none ended in a draw. The meetings have produced an average of three goals per game. The most recent meeting was a 4-0 win for Al Qadsiah at Al Riyadh on 29 April 2026. Given the past scores and the fact that both sides have shown the ability to score, we expect another open game with chances at both ends.
Our pick is Al Qadsiah to win. The numbers give Al Qadsiah an expected 2.3 goals compared with 0.8 for Al Riyadh, and the chance they score at all is 91 %. The price of 1.32 is shorter than our own reading, which makes it look attractive. We think Al Qadsiah have about a 69 % chance of coming out on top. The pick would go wrong if Al Riyadh manage to hold a clean sheet again at home and score early, forcing the visitors to chase the game. Otherwise the odds and the form both point to an Al Qadsiah victory.
Recent results
Al Qadsiah have won three of the last four meetings.
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