How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 80%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Al Ettifaq and 0.9 from Al Riyadh, so Al Ettifaq come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 80%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out.