How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Neom SC and 1.0 from Al Fayha, so Neom SC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 57%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.94, which works out at about 52 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 57%.
