How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 3.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.9 goals from Al Nassr and 0.9 from Al Fateh, so Al Nassr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 2.6-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 66%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A clean sheet at either end undoes it, and one side shutting up shop is always on the cards. At around 66% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
