How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Al Ittihad and 1.0 from Al Kholood, so Al Ittihad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Ittihad -1 (win by 2+). Al Ittihad are strong enough to win this with a bit to spare (xG 3.0-0.9). The handicap asks them to do it by a clear margin, and on these numbers that is a fair ask.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
The handicap leaves no cushion — Al Ittihad have to win by the full margin, and one goal short still loses. At around 62% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
