How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al Shabab or Draw 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Fateh host Al Shabab at home in the Saudi Pro League on 22 October 2026. Al Shabab sit 13th out of 18 with eight points from nine games and a -2 goal difference. One place above them sits Al Riyadh, a point clear, while Al-Fayha sit just below, also a point away. The two clubs are close in the table and both need points to move away from the lower half. Our numbers show Al Shabab as the stronger side, but the match is still very open.
Al Fateh have not been mentioned in the recent results list, so we cannot detail their form. What we can say is that they are playing at home and will be looking to use that advantage to climb the table.
Al Shabab’s last four outings have been a mix of draws, a win and a loss. Most recently they drew 2-2 with Al-Faisaly at home, then beat Al-Taawoun 3-0, followed by a goalless draw with Al-Fayha, and a 2-1 defeat away to Al Kholood. In those four games they have scored six goals and let in four. They kept two clean sheets and failed to find the net once. Three of the four matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in two of them. The team are unbeaten in their last three games, but they played only three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.
The two clubs have not provided any head-to-head record in the information we have, so we cannot refer to past meetings. Given the recent scores, the game is likely to have at least a couple of goals, with both sides capable of scoring. Our expectation of 3.0 goals aligns with the recent goal-rich fixtures Al Shabab have been involved in.
We back Al Shabab or a draw at 1.35. The price is shorter than what we see in the match, giving us a safety net if the game ends level. Al Shabab’s recent form suggests they can score, and the chance they fail to score is low. For our pick to go wrong, Al Fateh would need to win outright, which would require them to keep a clean sheet and score at least once while Al Shabab are held scoreless. The odds look good for our selection, and we feel comfortable with a 68 % chance of success.
Recent results
Al Fateh have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
