How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Al Ittihad (Draw No Bet) 63%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Al Fateh and 1.9 from Al Ittihad, so Al Ittihad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Ittihad (Draw No Bet). Al Ittihad are favoured here (xG 1.2-1.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Al Ittihad defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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