How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al Hazem or Draw 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Hazem host Al Fayha at their home ground in the Saudi Pro League on 22 October 2026. Al Hazem sit 11th out of 18 with nine points from ten games and a –4 goal difference. Al Fayha are a little higher in the table, just one place above Al Khaleej and three points clear, while Al Riyadh sit just below Al Hazem on the same points. Both teams are fighting to pull away from the lower half, and a point here could mean the difference between staying safe and slipping into a relegation battle.
Al Hazem have not won any of their last four matches. They lost 1-0 away to Al Hilal, then fell 3-2 at home to Al Fateh FC. A 1-1 draw with Neom SC at home followed, and before that they were beaten 3-1 away by Al Ahli. In those four games they have scored four goals and let in eight. They failed to find the net in the loss to Al Hilal, but in the other three games both sides scored at least once and two of the matches featured three or more goals. The side played just three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.
Al Fayha’s recent form is not detailed in the data we have, but the numbers show they are very close to Al Hazem in overall strength. Their chance of scoring at least once is 69 % and the chance of scoring twice or more is 33 %. The odds for both teams to find the net are almost identical, with each side expected to score about 1.2 goals. This symmetry suggests a tight contest rather than a one-sided affair.
When the two clubs have met before there is almost nothing to separate them in the statistics. Both are expected to score around one goal and the total goal expectation sits at 2.4. The pattern of recent games for Al Hazem shows that when they score, they often concede as well, and the same balance appears for Al Fayha. We can expect a close, low-scoring match with both sides looking for that single goal to take the lead.
Our pick is Al Hazem or a draw at 1.36. The price is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, so the bet gives us a safety net while still backing the home side. We think a draw or a narrow win for Al Hazem is the most likely outcome, giving us a 66 % chance of success. The pick would go wrong if Al Fayha manage to score twice and keep a clean sheet, or if Al Hazem fail to find the net at all. In those cases the price would not pay off.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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