How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Falkirk host Hearts at home in a Scottish Premiership clash on 15 September 2026. Falkirk sit 11th of 12, two points clear of the relegation spot but only two points ahead of Aberdeen and one point above Kilmarnock. Hearts are much higher, sitting third, just one point behind Rangers and two points ahead of St Mirren. The game could move Falkirk a little higher in the drop zone or give Hearts a chance to close the gap on the leaders. Both sides have a decent chance of scoring – 67 % for Falkirk and 85 % for Hearts – so a goal on either end looks likely.
Falkirk have not won in their last eight matches, recording two draws and six defeats. The most recent results were a 1-1 draw away at Dundee United, a 2-1 loss at home to Rangers, a 2-1 loss away to Celtic, a 0-0 draw away at Motherwell, a 2-0 loss at home to St Mirren and a 5-2 loss at home to Rangers. In those eight games they have scored six goals and let in 18. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to score in three matches. All four of their recent home games have ended in defeat.
Hearts arrive on the back of six wins and two defeats in their last eight outings. Their recent run includes a 3-0 away win over Stenhousemuir, a 2-1 home win over Dundee, a 3-1 away win over Hibernian, a 2-1 home win over St Johnstone, a 4-0 home win over Dundee United and a 2-1 away loss to Aberdeen. Over those eight games Hearts have found the net 19 times while conceding only eight. They have kept three clean sheets and have scored three or more goals in each of those matches. The side played just four days ago, so they will be moving quickly onto this fixture.
The two clubs have met four times before, with Hearts winning every encounter. The average scoreline of those games has been about 2.2 goals. The most recent meeting was a 3-0 victory for Hearts in May 2026. Given the history of high-scoring games and the fact that both teams have been finding the net regularly, we expect another open contest rather than a defensive stalemate.
Our pick is both teams to score. The price of 1.65 looks short compared with our reading of the match. Both sides have enough attacking threat – roughly 1.1 goals for Falkirk and 1.7 for Hearts – to make a goal likely from each end. We see a 57 % chance of this happening. For the pick to fail, Falkirk would have to keep a clean sheet or Hearts would need to shut out their opponents, both of which would be unlikely given the recent form and the goal averages.
Recent results
Hearts have won four of the last four meetings.
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