How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Aberdeen to score 1 or fewer 84%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Motherwell and 0.8 from Aberdeen, so Motherwell come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Aberdeen to score 1 or fewer. This is about Aberdeen's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 84%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Motherwell have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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