How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Kilmarnock to score 1 or fewer 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Hibernian host Kilmarnock at Easter Road on 15 September. Hibernian sit eighth in the 12-team league with six points from five games and a –2 goal difference. They are in the relegation zone, just one point ahead of Dundee United and one point behind St Johnstone. Kilmarnock are bottom of the table, twelfth with a single point from five games and a –10 goal difference, also in the relegation places and a point behind Falkirk. Both clubs are fighting to climb out of the drop zone, so the three points on offer are crucial for each side.
Hibernian have not been good at home of late. In their last three matches at Easter Road they have lost all three. Over their last eight games overall they have won three, lost five and drawn none. The recent results are a 3-0 win away at Ross County, a 2-1 defeat away to St Johnstone, another 2-1 loss away to St Johnstone, a 3-1 loss at home to Hearts, a 2-1 win away at Dundee and a 2-1 win away at Rangers. In those eight games they have scored eleven and let in twelve. Only one clean sheet was kept and they failed to find the net once. Seven of the eight fixtures featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them.
Kilmarnock have struggled even more. In their last eight outings they have managed two wins, one draw and five defeats. The most recent results are a 0-0 draw away at Aberdeen, a 1-0 loss at home to St Mirren, another 1-0 defeat at home to St Mirren, a 4-0 loss at home to Dundee United, a 5-1 loss at home to Celtic and a 4-3 defeat away at St Johnstone. They have gone six games without a win. On the road in their last three trips they have one win, one draw and one loss. Across the eight games they have scored eleven and conceded seventeen. They kept one clean sheet but have failed to score in four matches. Their last appearance was ten days ago.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been open. In the last five meetings Hibernian have won three, there have been two draws and Kilmarnock have not won any. The fixtures have produced an average of 2.8 goals. The most recent encounter was a 3-0 victory for Hibernian on 4 April 2026. Given the recent form and the goal averages, we expect another match with chances at both ends, but Hibernian are the clear statistical favourite to score.
Our pick is Kilmarnock to score one goal or fewer. The expectation for Kilmarnock is just over one goal, and the chance of them staying under that mark is about 76 per cent. The price of 1.31 matches our view of the game. For the pick to fail, Kilmarnock would need to find the net twice, which is unlikely given they have only scored twice in four of their recent eight games and have struggled to break down defenses away from home. We feel comfortable with this selection.
Recent results
Hibernian have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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