How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Hibernian and 1.3 from Hearts, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Hibernian come into this on two straight wins. Hearts come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.6 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 70%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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