How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made OFK Beograd to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from OFK Beograd and 1.0 from FK IMT Beograd, so OFK Beograd come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: OFK Beograd to win. OFK Beograd are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.0), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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