How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 2. We made FK Crvena Zvezda to win 91%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.5 goals from FK Zemun and 3.3 from FK Crvena Zvezda, so FK Crvena Zvezda come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FK Crvena Zvezda to win. FK Crvena Zvezda shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.5-3.3), and we make them about 93% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 91 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.08, which works out at about 93 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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