How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Partizan Beograd to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Partizan Beograd and 1.1 from OFK Beograd, so Partizan Beograd come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Partizan Beograd to win. Partizan Beograd are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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