How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made FK Radnik Surdulica to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from FK Zemun and 1.2 from FK Radnik Surdulica, so FK Radnik Surdulica come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
FK Zemun come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FK Radnik Surdulica to win. FK Radnik Surdulica shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.2), and we make them about 47% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last three meetings are split 1-1, with one drawn.
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