What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Genoa and 1.5 from Juventus, so Juventus come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Juventus to win. Juventus shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.5), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Juventus have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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