How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Over 1.5 goals 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Monza host Cagliari at home in a Serie A clash on 19 October 2026. Monza sit 15th in the table with four points from six games and a -6 goal difference. They are only one point above Bologna and level with Parma below them. Cagliari sit much higher, seventh with 13 points and a +3 goal difference, equal on points with Frosinone above and two points clear of Juventus below. Both clubs are looking for points, but the stakes differ: Monza need to climb out of the relegation zone while Cagliari aim to keep pressure on the European spots.
Monza’s recent form has been uneven. In their last eight matches they have recorded one win, three draws and four defeats. The most recent results are a 3-1 loss to Lazio away, a 2-2 draw with Brest away, a 2-1 victory over Sassuolo at home, a 3-2 defeat to Lecce away, a 1-1 draw with Parma away and a 3-2 loss to Udinese at home. In those eight games they have scored 13 goals and let in 19. Seven of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides have found the net in every game. At home in their last three outings they have one win, one draw and one loss.
Cagliari arrive on a much stronger run. In their last eight fixtures they have won six, drawn one and lost one. The latest results are a 1-1 draw with Juventus at home, a 1-0 win at Udinese, a 2-1 victory at Atalanta, a 1-0 win over Lecce at home, a 1-0 defeat to Inter at home and a 1-0 win at Parma. Over those eight games Cagliari have scored ten and conceded five, keeping three clean sheets and being shut out only once. Their last four road games have all been wins, showing they can pick up points away from home. The most recent match was eight days ago.
The two sides have met four times before. Monza have won once, Cagliari twice and one game ended in a draw. Those meetings have produced an average of 2.2 goals per game. The latest encounter was a 3-0 win for Cagliari in March 2025. Given the recent scoring patterns – both clubs averaging about 1.3 goals each and a history of games with three or more goals – we expect another relatively open contest with at least two goals on the board.
Our pick is over 1.5 goals. The price of 1.35 matches our reading of the game. With both teams likely to score and the chance of two or more goals sitting at around 74 percent, the bet looks attractive. It would only fail if the match turns into a tight defensive battle, with Monza failing to find the net and Cagliari keeping a clean sheet, which seems unlikely given the recent trends.
Recent results
Cagliari have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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