How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Parma to score 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Parma and 1.1 from Torino, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Parma to score. This is about Parma's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 69%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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