Serie ASun 11 Oct · 13:00 UTC

Lazio v Monza prediction

LazioWWWWD

MonzaDLLDL

What to expect

We expect about 2.0 goals from Lazio and 0.9 from Monza, so Lazio come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Lazio to win. Lazio are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.

What the numbers say

✓Lazio are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.

✓Monza have not won any of their last five.

✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.

✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

9 Feb 2025Lazio 5 - 1 Monza

10 Nov 2024Monza 0 - 1 Lazio

4 May 2024Monza 2 - 2 Lazio

23 Sept 2023Lazio 1 - 1 Monza

2 Apr 2023Monza 0 - 2 Lazio

Lazio have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.

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