What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Sassuolo and 1.4 from Milan, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.4), and we make both teams to score about 56%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Sassuolo have won two of their last five.
✓Milan have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
3 May 2026Sassuolo 2 - 0 Milan
14 Dec 2025Milan 2 - 2 Sassuolo
14 Apr 2024Sassuolo 3 - 3 Milan
30 Dec 2023Milan 1 - 0 Sassuolo
29 Jan 2023Milan 2 - 5 Sassuolo
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