How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Sassuolo and 1.6 from Milan, so Milan come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 56%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Sassuolo have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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