How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Arezzo and 1.2 from Palermo, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.3-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 72% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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