How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Mantova and 1.2 from Empoli, so Mantova come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.7 goals between the two (xG 1.6-1.2), landing about 76% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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