How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Ascoli (Draw No Bet) 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Ascoli host Sampdoria at home in Serie B on 27 October 2026. Ascoli sit fourth in the table with 15 points from eight games and a +8 goal difference, just one point behind Modena and one ahead of Benevento. Sampdoria are down in 19th place with five points, a –8 goal difference, a point behind Catanzaro and a point behind Cremonese. The gap between the two sides is huge, and the result could tighten the race for the promotion places while also moving the relegation battle. The numbers we have suggest Ascoli will score almost twice on average, while Sampdoria are expected to find the net less than once.
Ascoli have been solid over their last eight matches, winning four, drawing three and losing only once. Their most recent games have been a 6-1 win away at Catanzaro, a 1-1 draw with Empoli at home, a goalless draw away at Sudtirol, a 3-1 victory over Avellino at home, a 1-0 loss away to Padova and a 1-0 win at home against Benevento. In those eight games they have scored 14 goals and let in six, keeping two clean sheets while failing to score in two. At home they have not been beaten, with two wins and two draws in their last four fixtures.
Sampdoria’s form has been far less encouraging. In their last eight outings they have managed only one win, two draws and five defeats. Their recent results are a 1-1 draw away at Sudtirol, a 2-1 loss at home to Arezzo, a 4-1 defeat away at Avellino, a 2-1 win at home over Catanzaro, a 2-0 loss away at Mantova and a 3-1 loss away at Palermo. They have scored eight goals while conceding sixteen in that spell and have gone three games without a win. On the road they have not won in five matches, drawing twice and losing three. Their most recent game, a 1-1 draw at Sudtirol, showed they can still find a goal but also that they are vulnerable at the back.
The two clubs have met twice before. The most recent encounter was a 2-1 win for Sampdoria at Ascoli on 11 March 2024. Overall the meetings have produced an average of 2.5 goals, with both sides scoring in most of those games. Given Ascoli’s stronger defence and the fact they have kept two clean sheets recently, we expect a tighter affair than the 2-5 goal average suggests, but the home side’s better scoring record should give them the edge.
Our pick is Ascoli on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.51 is longer than we think the game is worth, and we feel comfortable with an 80 % chance of the bet succeeding. Ascoli are the clear favourites, and the draw-no-bet removes the risk of a level result. For us to lose, Ascoli would have to lose outright, which seems unlikely given their recent unbeaten run at home and the poor form of Sampdoria away from home. The price looks good and the odds of a win for Ascoli are high, so we back them.
Recent results
Sampdoria have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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