How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Cesena or Draw 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Cesena host Empoli at home on 27 October in Serie B. Both clubs sit in the lower half of the table. Cesena are 15th with eight points from eight games and a goal difference of minus four. One place above them sits Juve Stabia, level on points, while Carrarese sit just below. Empoli are 17th, also on seven points, with a minus six goal difference and already in the relegation zone. Carrarese sit a spot above Empoli, and Cremonese are just below. The two sides are only two places apart, but Cesena have a small edge in the numbers we use, and a win would lift them clear of the drop-zone threat for a night.
Cesena have not won in their last six matches. In their last eight games they have recorded one win, five draws and two defeats. The most recent result was a 3-0 loss away to Modena. Before that they drew 1-1 with Avellino at home, lost 2-0 to Benevento away, and then drew 1-1 with Juve Stabia on the road. At home they have been especially hard to beat, drawing 1-1 with Cremonese, 2-2 with Mantova and again 1-1 with Avellino, but they have not managed a win in four straight home games. Across those eight fixtures Cesena have scored eight goals and let in twelve, failing to find the net in two matches. Three of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them.
Empoli’s form is similarly poor. In their last eight outings they have won twice, drawn once and lost five times. Their latest match was a 2-0 defeat at home to Vicenza. Prior to that they drew 1-1 away at Ascoli, then suffered a 4-2 loss to Palermo at home, a 2-1 defeat away at Modena, a 1-0 loss at home to Arezzo and a 1-0 away win over Carrarese. Empoli have gone five games without a win and have only kept two clean sheets in the same period, while also failing to score in two matches. Over the eight games they have scored seven and conceded thirteen. Four of those fixtures featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.
The two clubs have met twice before this clash. Empoli have one win and one draw from those meetings, with an average of 1.5 goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 28 February 2026. Given the low scoring trend in their head-to-head history and the fact that both sides have struggled to find the net lately, we expect a tight, low-scoring affair with few chances.
Our pick is Cesena or the draw at odds of 1.34. The price sits close to our own reading of the game and gives us a safety net if the match ends level. Cesena have a 76 % chance of scoring at least once and a 39 % chance of scoring twice, while Empoli’s chances are slightly lower at 69 % and 30 % respectively. If Cesena manage to break the deadlock first, they should be able to hold on. The bet would go wrong only if Empoli score early and keep the pressure on, or if both sides fail to score and the game ends 0-0. In those scenarios the price would not be as attractive. Overall we feel the pick offers good coverage for the likely outcome.
Recent results
Empoli have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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