How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Padova or Draw 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Padova host Sudtirol at home in Serie B on 27 October 2026. Padova sit ninth in the twenty-team table with ten points from eight matches and a goal difference of minus three. One place above them is Avellino, just a point ahead, while Arezzo sit directly below with the same points. Both clubs have played their last game three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor. The two sides are almost equal on the numbers we have, which points to a tight, low-scoring contest.
Padova’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won three, drawn one and lost four. The most recent result was a 1-0 win away at Avellino. Before that they fell 2-1 at home to Virtus Entella, then lost 2-0 at home to Carrarese, and were beaten 2-1 away by Palermo. They did manage a 1-0 home victory over Ascoli, but earlier they suffered a 3-1 away loss to Cremonese. In those eight matches Padova have scored seven goals and let in ten. They kept three clean sheets, failed to find the net once, and four of the games saw both sides score.
Sudtirol have been slightly more resilient. Their last eight outings produced three wins, four draws and a single defeat. The latest was a 1-1 home draw with Sampdoria. Prior to that they were thrashed 3-0 away by Juve Stabia, then held Ascoli to a goalless draw at home, and enjoyed a 4-1 away win over Arezzo. They also drew 1-1 with Modena at home and beat Catanzaro 2-0 on their own turf. Over the same eight-game stretch Sudtirol have scored ten and conceded seven, kept three clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Their last three road games have yielded a win, a draw and a loss.
The two clubs have met twice before this fixture. Sudtirol have the edge with one win and one draw, and the games have averaged 2.5 goals. The most recent encounter was a 3-0 victory for Sudtirol on 25 January 2026. Given the low scoring trend in both teams’ recent matches and the fact that each side has kept several clean sheets, we expect another tight affair with few chances. The chance of Padova scoring at all is 69 % and Sudtirol’s is 64 %, while the likelihood of either side scoring twice is under 30 %.
Our pick is Padova or a draw. The price of 1.36 matches our reading of a close, low-scoring game and offers a sensible safety net. We think Padova’s home advantage and recent win give them a slight edge, but the recent 3-0 loss to Sudtirol shows they can be vulnerable. The pick will fail if Sudtirol dominate early and keep a clean sheet, or if Padova struggle to create any clear chances. Otherwise we feel the price is attractive and the chance of success sits around 71 %.
Recent results
Sudtirol have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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