Mantova v Cremonese: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Mantova or Draw 75%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Mantova host Cremonese at home in a Serie B clash on 27 October 2026. Mantova sit second in the table with 17 points from eight games and a +6 goal difference. They are just five points behind leaders Palermo and one point ahead of Modena. Cremonese are down at 18th with six points, a –5 goal difference, one point behind Sampdoria and one point behind Empoli. A win for Mantova would push them closer to the top spots, while a loss could see them slip into the relegation battle. The two teams are separated by twelve points, but both have played the same number of matches.

Mantova have been in good form over their last eight outings, winning five, drawing two and losing just once. Their most recent results are a 1-0 win away at Virtus Entella, a 2-0 home victory over Sampdoria, a 2-2 draw with Pisa at home and a 1-1 draw away at Cesena. Before that they beat Catanzaro 3-1 away and suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Palermo. In those eight games they have scored 14 goals and let in eight, kept two clean sheets and failed to find the net only once. At home they have two wins, one draw and one loss in the last four matches.

Cremonese have been less consistent, recording two wins, three draws and three defeats in their last eight games. Their latest results are a 1-0 loss at home to Juve Stabia, a 3-1 away loss to Pisa and a goalless draw away at Arezzo. Earlier they beat Juventus 1-0 away, drew 0-0 with Virtus Entella at home and shared a 2-2 draw with Cesena away. Over the same eight-game stretch they have scored seven times and conceded ten, kept three clean sheets and have been shut out in four matches. Their recent road form shows one win, two draws and one loss in the last four away games.

The two clubs have split their recent head-to-head meetings, each winning once with no draws. Those two games produced an average of 3.5 goals. The most recent encounter was a 4-2 victory for Cremonese on 25 April 2025. Given the goal-rich history and both sides’ ability to score, we can expect another open contest with chances on both ends.

We back Mantova or a draw at 1.31. Mantova are the stronger side on our expectations, with a 78 % chance of scoring and a 43 % chance of getting two or more goals, while Cremonese have a 66 % chance to find the net. The price sits close to our own reading of the game and gives us a decent safety net. For our pick to fail, Mantova would need to be shut out and Cremonese would have to score at least once, which seems unlikely given the recent form and the goal averages. We feel comfortable with this selection.