How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Catanzaro or Draw 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Catanzaro and 1.4 from Mantova, so Catanzaro come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Catanzaro or Draw. This covers Catanzaro or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Catanzaro have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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