How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Pisa or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Vicenza and 1.6 from Pisa, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Pisa or Draw. This covers Pisa or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Pisa have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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