How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Padova or Draw 76%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Padova and 0.9 from Carrarese, so Padova come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Carrarese come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Padova or Draw. This covers Padova or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Padova have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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