Arezzo v Cremonese: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Cremonese or Draw 72%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from Arezzo and 1.8 from Cremonese, so Cremonese come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Arezzo come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Cremonese or Draw. This covers Cremonese or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.