What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Cesena and 0.9 from Sampdoria, so Cesena come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 61%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. At around 61% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
