What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Palermo and 0.8 from Juve Stabia, so Palermo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.6-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 57%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. We make it about 57% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
